The One with the Oscar Predictions

It's two days before Hollywood's biggest night, so here's my take on how the chips will fall on the 27th.

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Supporting Actor



Will Win: Morgan Freeman
Should Win: Clive Owen
Darkhorse: Thomas Haden Church
Clive Owen won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but why isn’t he the favorite to win the Oscar? An SAG snub (wasn’t even nominated) indicates that Oscar voters are cold towards him. Over the past 10 years, there has only been one instance where a supporting actor won the Oscar despite not having nominated in the SAGs (“Pollack”’s Marcia Gay harden in 2000). It’s possible for Clive Owen to duplicate the feat, but questionable.

His biggest competition is Morgan Freeman. He’s been passed over thrice (“Street Smart”, “Driving Miss Daisy”, “Shawshank Redemption”), and there is a growing consensus that he’s due to be given his gold. However, recent Oscar history doesn’t bode well for him. Over the past five years, the films that the Best Actress winner appeared in had zero wins in the other awards they were nominated for. If Hilary Swank wins Best Actress, it could mean trouble for Freeman.

Going in Thomas Haden Church’ favor is the Sideways’ Ensemble win at the SAGs. With Paul Giamatti being snubbed in the Lead Actor category, and Virginia Madsen a long shot in the Supporting Actress category, the Academy may award the win to Haden Church in recognition for the whole ensemble’s work. Since there’s no clear-cut favorite between Freeman and Owen, Haden Church may well end up as the winner.

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Supporting Actress



Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Sophie Okonedo
Darkhorse: Virginia Madsen
Much like the Supporting Actor category, this one is up for grabs. Blanchett won the SAG, Portman won the Globe, while Madsen came away with the BFCA. Blanchett’s overdue (0/4 at the Oscars), Portman is the hot upstart (which the Academy loves), and Madsen winning is an award for her film’s ensemble (see Supporting Actor comments above). Any of the three’s capable, but my gut says Blanchett will pull it off.

That being said, I don’t feel that any of three are as deserving as the other two nominated ladies in this category. Both Laura Linney and Sophie Okonedo were amazing in their respective parts in “Kinsey” and “Hotel Rwanda”, stuff that really define supporting roles. I don’t know how they classify Lead Actresses from Supporting Actresses, but the three frontrunners seemed to play lead roles in their respective films instead of supporting ones. Okonedo, in particular, stands out in “Hotel Rwanda” as Don Cheadle’s wife, defining the “ilaw ng tahanan” character to perfection. She’s a long shot, but she’s the most deserving nonetheless.

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Lead Actress



Will Win: Hilary Swank
Should Win: Hilary Swank
Darkhorse: Imelda Staunton
‘Twas a bad year for women at the movies. It seems that Swank will win it by default. In fairness to the other nominated actresses, I’ve only seen “Million Dollar Baby” so I don’t have any opinion with regards to who deserves the award the most. I’ve explained in previous pages on why Swank won’t possibly win it (that she’s too… “small” to be a multiple Oscar winner). That being said, there’s really no other way to go but Swank. Easy pickings.

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Lead Actor



Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Don Cheadle
Darkhorse: Leonardo DiCaprio
There’s nothing much to say; Jamie Foxx has a lock on the award, and it will be a scandal if he loses (I can just imagine people pinning Foxx’ loss because he’s black). I don’t feel he’s the most deserving though. There’s a fine line between acting and imitating, something which most Academy voters are not aware of. Was it great imitation? Sure it was. Was it great acting? No. To be honest, Will Smith’s imitation of boxing great Muhammed Ali was even better than Foxx’ imitation of Ray Charles.

If there will be an upset (and that’s a big IF), it’s most likely to be pulled off by DiCaprio. I feel that his performance in “The Aviator” is still wanting, and that we haven’t seen the best out of him yet. Johnny Depp proved that he is one of the finest actors today with a second straight nomination; too bad he’s walking away empty-handed once again. It’s Clint Eastwood’s nomination that still baffles me to this day. His directing was superb, and his original score, although not nominated, deserves an award. But his acting is easily the weakest link of the film, even by his own standards. The slot should’ve at least been given to Paul Giamatti from “Sideways”.

Now, Don Cheadle in “Hotel Rwanda” – that’s one piece of powerful acting. He gives the performance of a lifetime as hotel manager Paul Rusesabagina, an unwitting hero during the Rwandan genocide. I’ve never felt more strongly towards a movie character as I felt towards Cheadle and this film. Too bad the film didn’t get much attention.

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Best Motion Picture



Will Win: The Aviator
Should Win: The Aviator
Darkhorse: Million Dollar Baby
It’s really a toss-up between the two: Scorsese’s biopic of eccentric billionaire Howard Hughes, or Eastwood’s boxing drama about life decisions. Many would like to think that Andrew Payne’s dark comedy “Sideways” is still in the running, but I think otherwise. The lukewarm reception it got with regards to its number of nominations indicate that it’s lost steam over the past few weeks.

“Million Dollar Baby” seems to be coming on strong at that same span, slowly inching closer to erstwhile frontrunner “The Aviator”. It is the sentimental choice, and if not for the name Scorsese being attached to “The Aviator”, it may well win the top prize. However, Scorsese IS attached to “The Aviator”, so I expect him to be finally rewarded by the Academy. The later is more polished, and more well rounded technically as proven by its number of nominations in the technical awards. It should come up with the top prize.

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Best Director



Will Win: Clint Eastwood
Should Win: Martin Scorsese
Darkhorse: Mike Leigh
Okay, this is where it gets tricky. “The Aviator” is obviously the best made film of 2004… so why not reward its director (only arguably the best director of our time, and foremost film historian nonetheless)? Because it leaves another well-loved film out in the cold with no awards, save for the acting categories. The logical choice should really be Martin Scorsese, but if Clint Eastwood’s nomination for Best Actor category is any indication of how the Academy loves the guy, then Scorsese may be passed over yet again. Eastwood won the Globe and the DGA (only *the * most accurate Oscar indicator of all the precursors), so it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he does pull it off.

I listed Mike Leigh of “Vera Drake” as darkhorse because back in 2003, Scorsese was also up against Rob Marshall of “Chicago” with another epic, “Gangs of New York”. No one predicted Roman Polanski and “The Pianist” to win big. It started with a surprise win for Adapted Screenplay, a surprise Best Actor nod for Adrien Brody, and Directing award for Polanski himself. Guess which categories “Vera Drake” are up for this year? Director, Original Screenplay, and Lead Actress. Shades of ’03?

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Other Awards

Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for “Sideways”, with Paul Haggis for “Million Dollar Baby” as it’s number one competitor.
Original Screenplay: I’m going against convention and pick Mike Leigh for “Vera Drake” as the winner. Although I wish they’d finally give it to Charlie Kaufman for “Eternal Sunshine”. Just when we think he couldn’t come up with another original screenplay, he surprises us with yet another mind-twister.
Animated Feature: “The Incredibles”
Cinematography: “A Very Long Engagement”
Film Editing: “The Aviator”
Art Direction: “Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events”
Sound: “Ray”
Sound Editing: “Spiderman 2”
Original Score: Thanks to “Ray” and “Million Dollar Baby” being disqualified, “Finding Neverland” should win it’s solitary award in this category.
Original Song: Although not as good as other Andrew Lloyd Webber compositions, “Learn to Be Lonely” from “The Phantom of the Opera” should cop this one.
Costume Design: “The Aviator”, although “Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events” can give it a run for its money.
Makeup: “The Passion of the Christ” (again, “Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events” could be a possible spoiler)
Visual Effects: “Spiderman 2”
Foreign Language Film: Alejandro Amenábar’s “The Sea Inside”, Spain
Documentary Feature: “Born Into Brothels” should win this one. I don’t see “Super Size Me” pulling it off.
Documentary Short: “Autism is a World”
Live Action Short Film: “Little Terrorist”
Animated Short: “Gopher Broke”

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Since I'm into a predicting mood, I'll take it one step further and predict that Katie...



...will win Survivor: Palau. I also predict that John...



...will win The Apprentice Season 3, and Fez, errr Mario Vazkwez



...will win American Idol 4.

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I'm going out on a limb and predict that Imelda Staunton will win for Best Actress. Why?

1. Swank ("Next Karate Kid", "The Core", and tv's "Beverly Hills 90210") is no multiple-Oscar material.
2. The enigma of 2003 will come back ("The Pianist" won Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor for Adrien Brody, and Directing for Polish director Roman Polanski). This year, "Vera Drake" is up for Original Screenplay, Lead Actress for Imelda Staunton, and Directing for Brit Mike Leigh.

So there. By the way, I also predicted that John Kerry would beat George W. Bush in last year's U.S. Presidential Elections. :p